Ok, this is nothing new. Just about everyone who ever commented on the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD war, pretty much has concluded that Blu-ray has effectively won the war, based on Warner and New Line's back to back announcements at the start of CES, that they would no longer support HD-DVD.
I know I did another quick blog at the start of CES, so consider this the final on the issue, sort of a wrap up.
I don't have any hard numbers, but my best guess is that, going forward, assuming no new announcements, HD-DVD will have something less than 50% of all movie titles available, while Blu-Ray will have about 80+%. Either Universal or Paramount dropping their exclusivity for HD-DVD will move Blu-ray to the 90%+ range.
And in Europe, Blu-ray has been even stronger than in the US. (not in sales, but in sales compared to HD-DVD) And in Japan, it sounds like disc sales favor Blu-ray by something close to 10:1.
Remember, the number of people with Blu-ray players, is still rather small. So, Toshiba and their HD-DVD partners, could perhaps pull a miracle out of their hat (mixed metaphor?). I just can't see what that miracle could possibly be.
However, until Blu-ray players drop below $100 (certainly before the end of 2008), most homes still won't have any hi-def player. And, until there are many times the current number of hi-def players out there, something "could" happen to change things. Just don't count on it.
All considered, though, this major shift in the war, is highly visible, and I think that many people holding out for a clear winner, will now get off the fence and go with Blu-ray. It will be interesting to see how much Blu-ray player sales ramp up in the first quarter.
Now, if only New Line will finally bring out Lord of the Rings. The three movie set, is probably the biggest, and most waited for hi-def release, and even it's announcement of a release date (let alone its actual shipment), should be another big nail in the HD-DVD coffin.
To all you projector owners who haven't picked up a hi-def player - what are you waiting for now? Believe me, even those of you with entry level and older 720p projectors will marvel at the huge difference between your standard DVD's and Blu-ray. Join the party, making the move to hi-def is like doing a major upgrade to your projector. -art